How France is preparing for a global warming of +4°C

After the poles, Western Europe is the area of ​​the world that is warming the most, even ahead of Asia. France experienced a historic drought in 2022, and restrictions on the use of water were again put in place, from the spring, in certain departments of the south-east, as well as in Ile-de-France. ” We all need to act, and act fast. We don’t have a moment to lose.” Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne announced on Monday May 22 before the National Council for Ecological Transition (CNTE).

How fast is France warming up?

The warming of France already reaches +1.7°C compared to the pre-industrial level (against an average of +1.1°C in the world. The government expects for the future to reach:

• +2°C in 2030,
• +2.7°C in 2050,
• +4°C in 2100.

What are the consequences of a warming of +4°C?

Such a level of warming will be accompanied by a cascade of events to which it will be difficult to adapt. For example: heat waves that could last two months or more in the south of France, an average of 50 tropical nights (over 20°C) per year in the north of the country and 90 in the south, the almost total disappearance French glaciers with a major impact on biodiversity and water, episodes of intense rain in the north of France with a frequent risk of flooding, regular water shortages throughout the year, large cities partly or totally uninhabitable because of the heat, such as Paris.

What are the main objectives of this new plan?

The main objective is to reduce France’s greenhouse gas emissions by -55% by 2030 (compared to 1990 levels), a very ambitious project in view of current developments: today , France is at 25% reduction. France will have to emit 270 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalent per year (MtCO₂e/year) at most, compared to 408 million in 2022. This implies a doubling of the annual rate of reduction of emissions”, specified the Prime Minister, i.e. -4.7% each year by 2030. Remember that greenhouse gas emissions fell by 2.5% in 2022.

Who is going to have to put in the effort?

Such a drastic drop necessarily implies a radical change in lifestyle, but the greatest efforts will be required from companies. Mrs. Elisabeth Borne explained that “ half of the effort will be made by companies, in particular large companies, a quarter by the State and local authorities and the last quarter by households”. The most targeted sector is transport, with the development of electric vehicles. Other projects should mainly concern individuals, such as the elimination of oil-fired boilers.

What are the announced measures?

While the government had announced that this new plan would consist of concrete measures, and not simple recommendations, the disappointment was there: no measure has yet been made public. The Prime Minister is postponing this step to June, this time with, in her words, “ a complete strategy ».