A weather blockage will bring drought back to northern France

After the heavy rains of March, April and early May, the drought in northern France was just history. But an almost summery weather sets in throughout the long weekend of Pentecost: behind this good news hides a powerful anticyclone which is not ready to be dislodged. This dry and hot weather in the north, up to 25°C in Paris, could last until June 5, or even according to certain weather models, until around June 10. No real precipitation, apart from a few rare showers, should tarnish this beautiful picture. This is what meteorologists colloquially call a ” anticyclonic potato », a persistent blockage of high pressures. And this one is remarkable: the geopotential, that is to say a way of quantifying the pressure at altitude, will reach an almost record level: 500 hpa at 5,800 meters above sea level in the British Isles on Monday, which is very high.

The soils of the northern half have a head start in terms of humidity

The surface drought forecast maps therefore envisage the return of a “moderate drought” over more than the northern half of the country by the beginning of June, and even “severe” over the northeastern third. A small area could even switch to “exceptional” or even “extreme” drought.

Despite this, it is still too early to worry about the state of the soil: the level of soil moisture was generally in excess north of the Loire at the end of April. But if this dry weather were to persist for more than 3three weeks, the soils of the northern half would then be in distress again.